House prices still falling - October stats

South African house prices fell by 2,5% year-on-year in October, as demand for property remained depressed, partly due to higher inflation and interest rates, a survey showed on Monday.

The monthly Standard Bank property gauge resumed its decline after a 3,6% rise in September. Prices had been falling since March.

Standard Bank said the median house price was unchanged from September's 580,000 rand while the five-month moving average was at -3,1% year-on-year, from -5,5%.

"The reduced affordability of housing, exacerbated by higher mortgage rates, high food and fuel prices and a slowing economy, led to a decline in the demand for residential property and a substantial softening in house price growth," Standard Bank said in a statement.

Interest rates have gone up by 5% since June 2006 -- taking the central bank's repo rate to 12% -- and together with higher inflation, have put a damper on household spending.

Tighter lending rules since June last year have also ended easy access to credit.

Standard Bank said the sector would likely remain under pressure until the second quarter of 2009.

"Residential property will remain in the doldrums until such time that fundamental drivers of the market take a turn for the better; that may only happen in the second quarter next year," it said.

"Even then, households may first want to normalise their personal finances before taking up new debt."

The ratio of household debt to disposable income eased to 76,7% in the second quarter of 2008, after hitting a record 78,2% in the first quarter.

Economists say interest rates may start falling in the first quarter of 2009 after the targeted CPIX inflation slowed for the first time in a year in September to 13% percent year-on-year, from a record high of 13,6% in August.

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responses to this article

The bottom is about to fall out With more and more owners defaulting on the mortgage repayments, the bottom is about to fall out of the residential property market. Now is the season to be jolly and frugality will take a backseat, next year there will be a wave of repossessions. by Sebastian on November 03 2008, 17:00 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Think of the future. http://edition.cnn.com/2008/SPORT/11/03/trump.scotland.golf.course/index.html by Play Golf? on November 03 2008, 17:21 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

drop 2,5 percent year-on-year as opposed to drop 40 percent in equities... Its not really an issue unless you are overextended and have to sell. Otherwise its a non-issue. Another Situation- 10 houses on a road, all same size plots, 5 face the ocean, 3 of them have full ocean views, other 2 are obscured, the 5 on . .more other side of road have no ocean view but face main road. 1 of the houses with full ocean view is available from emigrating owner at 20 percent more than average price of all 10 houses or 5 percent more than house with ocean view. In addition a bank owned property facing road is for sale at 20% less than average price of all 10 houses. Which one is the bargain? Which one would you buy? . .less by Comparison on November 03 2008, 17:30 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Sea-facing Seems to hold its value - that's the one I'd go for. So what's the catch, Comparison? by Felix on November 03 2008, 17:48 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

No catch Value means different things to different people. Different personal circumstances dictate outlook. I also choose the sea view as it suits my circumstances yet others will choose the cheapest one facing the road because it suits their circumstances. They . .more will compromise due to circumstances on the sea view because they really like the area and walking to the beach is 2 minutes for them. Equally valid is that houses with the sea view may come on the market once every 5 years but the house facing the road every year. Do you buy now when given the opportunity? Or take a chance and wait? The overall point is that general statistical trends alone cannot predict the value that individuals place on individual houses. Very rarely are residential property identical, fittings, gardens, extras can all make a difference to price. It is a buyers market with more choice and more room for negotiation and most data sets and methodologies are showing a drop in house prices. However people generally buy houses to live in and 7 years is about the average that people stay in a house before moving (upmarket, downmarket, sideways, change areas, temporary renting, etc). . .less by Comparison on November 03 2008, 18:20 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Where is Tony from Rawson Tony must come and see for himself that property has not come down yet. We as medium class citizen would like to see property in a middle class area coming down from the 600% it bubbled to in 2004 to an affordable price range probably . .more -600%. Don't you dare try to compare prices in to those in SA. If you do, compare salaries too. Affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, . .less by Khaya on November 03 2008, 18:43 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Where is Tony from Rawson Tony must come and see for himself that property has not come down yet. We as middle class citizen would like to see property in a middle class area coming down from the 600% it bubbled to in 2004 to an affordable price range probably . .more -600%. Don't you dare try to compare prices in the UK to those in SA. If you do, compare salaries too. Affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, . .less by Khaya on November 03 2008, 18:53 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

The world will re-invent the wheel one’s again Property is a safe capital investment, with long-term benefits. What you can purchase now for R1mil (let say) you wont purchase in 5years. Your money depreciates in value… and property appreciates. Anyway, people who have NO knowledge of the property . .more market shouldn’t try to be ‘buy to let’ investors. The average Mr. Jones doesn’t understand factors surrounding maintenance, market evaluation etc. If you don not know anything about property but just want to be part of the bandwagon, buy into a consortium or a REIT, and leave the real property investment strategies to the people who knows what to do with their money . .less by Viper on November 03 2008, 18:57 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Agents welcome lower prices Speak to agents and all of them, without fail, say prices are down. And they all agree that its good business. The are two inhibitors to the market recovering and that is high prices and the strict credit policy of the banks. If prices come down, . .more affordability goes up and the market recovers. So everybody, even agents, welcome lower prices. . .less by PAPA SHENGO on November 03 2008, 19:08 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Ahhh affordability is the new cry... Try any of the former black townships they generally have lower priced houses. If you are paying 4000 in rent you can probably buy a reasonable house cheaper than that. Ditto if you are renting in an upmarket housing estate you can probably also afford to . .more pay the same in mortgage payment in a less desirable area. Affordability is just another way of saying you cannot afford to own in the area you are renting in. Its the same with cars... people cannot afford to buy a Toyota Yaris but have no qualms of leasing a Mercedes. The problem is less to do with affordability and more to do with the sense of entitlement to a certain standard of living. . .less by Entitlement Culture on November 03 2008, 19:11 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Papa Estate Agents actually welcome commission. They really don't care what price they sell the house for- they just want it sold and the commission in their pocket. They will negotiate with the seller to drop his price, the buyer to raise his offer, hell they will even agree to drop their percentage . .more commission in order to make the sale and have money coming in. The less time they have to invest in making a same the better as they will make it up on volume. They are funny like that.... Commission is very motivational but can also test ethical boundaries dependent upon the agents financial "needs". . .less by Patron Saint of Estate Agents on November 03 2008, 19:48 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

same = sale . by Knome say on November 03 2008, 19:49 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Read CAREFULLY>>> Standard are talking about house price growth. Let me repeat..... house price growth, house price growth, house price growth, house price growth, house price growth, house price growth, house price growth, house price growth, house price growth, . .more house price growth, house price growth, house price growth, Then read 1st line, "South African house prices fell by 2,5% year-on-year in October" This is the actual prices, going from R580 000 to R550 000. Hardly a crash and not worth worrying about... ! . .less by smug on November 03 2008, 21:29 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

R580 000 to R550 000 R580 000 to R550 000 ! Shocking! That must mean all of an extra R20 a month on the 20-year mortgage payment. I would rather wait 12 months, save R20 a month extra than buy my dream home now.....R20 invested every month in a fixed deposit for 12-months . .more will give me a useful capital sum of R240 or R250 with interest.... . .less by Not so Smug on November 03 2008, 22:32 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

teach me teach me Tell me not so smug. That sounds like a good interest rate and makes sense because if you work out the % you make on your R20 you will make 11% vs the -2.5% you will loose on property. So it makes so much more sense to invest your money than to . .more buy. My worry however is will my R20 be safe in the banks? In a years time when prices go down will I get my investment out of the bank. . .less by follow the leader on November 03 2008, 22:44 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

How do we sell your house! We have had our house on the market since April this year and still unable to sell it. We have steadly reduced the price so that we are R150k below our bond and we still can't sell. Any suggestions out there as to what we do as we can no longer afford the . .more bond payments? What are the consequences if you default on the bond? . .less by Worried on November 03 2008, 22:47 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

MUCH more downside still to come, Girls! Don't listen to the cr@p these phukken estate agents and their bosses speak! This housing market is in very, very serious trouble! @ Worried? There is no hope for you - hand in the keys and walk away! by Milkshakes Mshabalala on November 04 2008, 07:16 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

The Standard index and "affordability" Firstly, the Standard index does not seem to reflect the reality on the ground - the statistical model seems flawed because anyone who truly believes that a house on sale today is only 5% cheaper than it was a year ago, has been asleep for the year. We . .more have double the number of houses for sale, half the buyers, 100,000 people behind on their bonds, repossessions increasing 20% a month, SA banks losing billions - does that sound like a 5% down scenario. Secondly, it is ALL about affordability - "entitlement culture" is totally wrong - if you can afford to rent in an area then you should be able to buy there. It should cost 10 times your annual rent. You need to save a years rent then put that down as a deposit then get a bond for the rest which should come to 3.5 times your salary. My house is 24 times the rent. No one would pay a higher rent because rent is reliant on salaries paid - so the only thing to change is for the house price to fall. 50% in my case. When the ratios return, affordability returns and only then will the crash will be over . .less by CJ Says on November 04 2008, 07:46 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

@CJ says Sounds like you got ripped off buddy! by Rogi on November 04 2008, 08:19 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Why is this news? Everyone knows that house prices will continue to drop every month for the next 10 years. OK there will be one month in 2010 when it will go up because some foreigners with more money than brains will buy property in this country. Property is the . .more worst investment you can make right now. . .less by Lee on November 04 2008, 08:53 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

For Worried What price are you trying to sell your house at? by Problem Solver on November 04 2008, 08:55 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Worried Just a suggestion or two which may help. Crank up your selling effort -expend time and effort rather than just money which is obviously a bit tight.Its amazing what you can achieve through hard graft. Make a real effort to get the place looking as best it . .more can, try and network as much as possible to find a buyer. Dont be embarrassed or shy to resort to home spun ideas like handing out your own pamphlets. Harness your friends to help in whatever way possible -no true friend would refuse to help. Just think if your family and friends could supplement the agents effort by getting the word out to 200 extra potential prospects every weekend. Whatever you do dont default but also understand that this may still be painful and may cost you. See what you can do to bring in more income -can the family collectively bring in an extra 2k a month? Parents get second jobs and kids get part time jobs too -thats only R500 a week but it will make a huge difference. Raise some cash by selling some of your possessions -much better to lose these than to lose your home or default. Can you rent out part of your house or take a lodger?The market will turn so make a massive effort to survive for the next 18 months -it will be worth it. Good luck. PS I have personally used all these techniques to haul myself out of the dwang before. . .less by Fighter on November 04 2008, 09:38 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

How come Rogi ? It is true that my last place, half the size of this, had an annual rent / price ratio of 32, so that would have been relatively much cheaper. Also, a friend negotiated a rent for a similar place to my present place for 18% cheaper because the . .more landlord was struggling to find a tenant. So maybe I AM over paying - what do you think is the correct rent for a 3.2m Cape Town house ? . .less by CJ Says on November 04 2008, 09:39 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Property is a safe capital investment, with long-term benefits. Hmmm. If you die, you go into stasis, well-preserved for judgement day, and the arise to heaven. So says dogma. I dunno if Zimbabweans will agree with you.Or bombed out Germany. It is true in a political stable environment, . .more however. Do we stay in a political stable environment? . .less by Snakeman on November 04 2008, 10:15 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

I think 'Worried' sums up the present situation As much as I am sorry to hear about your predicament on a personal level, it does illustrate my point that the Standard Bank index is way out of sync. I think one possible mistake which people make in a crash is to reduce the price a little at a . .more time, as you say you have done - all they are doing is chasing the market down. For those who are struggling to sell, the only way to grab one of the few buyers out there is to reduce the price substantially so that you are top of the bargain list. The other houses will be where you are in the following months but for the moment you are ahead of the pack. The market is not going to get higher any time soon and will be falling more. If you rent you probably won't cover the bond. I am afraid you are paying the price of the greed of the last decade. I am not saying you were necessarily part of that greed, you are possibly one of the innocents caught in the crossfire whilst the big boys have bailed out long ago and are counting their money. As you can see on this forum, there are buyers around who will buy if they think they have a bargain. To nab them you have to reduce your price more than everyone else. If prices then fall further, it becomes their problem and not yours. I am afraid you are experiencing what us Bears have been warning about for 2 years. Care to share the figures? . .less by CJ says on November 04 2008, 10:16 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

HOUSE PRICES FALLING Please, when doing the calculations re waiting to buy and banking the money, or buying now, factor in the RENTAL of accomodation whilst waiting. This of course applies to those of us who are talking about our prime residences and who are obliged to . .more borrow ther greater part of the purchase price. . .less by Peter on November 04 2008, 10:33 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

WHEN WILL IT STOP FALLING?...I KNOW PETER!!!!! You are silly to beleive that house prices will continue to fall!! This is why...... 1. Bottom of cycle: Interest rates have peaked. Possible rate cuts next year. 2. Stabalisation: Allot of the current market is driven by forced sales. . .more When these homes have been sold at bargains, the bulk of the people surviving the high interest rates will continue to survive and will hold on to their properties. The market will then stabalise as there are no forced sales. 3. Demand: Slow down in resedidential construction will increase demand in 24 months or so. 4. Inflation: Increase in building cost. (currently R5,500 - R7,000 p/m2) would not compensate replacement cost on properties. 5. People need houses: New year approaching....new jobs in a new area....well where do you go? Cannot live on the street. . .less by NOT RUNNING WITH BULLS!! on November 04 2008, 11:04 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Investment real estate broker tells it how it is A very interesting piece explaining where the real estate crisis is going by someone who has been a real estate investment advisor since 1982 - A few chioce quotes to wet you appetite - --"Just laugh in the face of those who say real . .more estate is bottoming now or will bottom "later this year," in 2009 or any other time in the next five years (at least). Certainly there won't be a "bottom" until a meltdown of one sort or another comes to pass and until most conclude that buying real estate is a losing proposition. Anyone who says we've reached bottom in the meanwhile surely has something to sell you (probably real estate or stocks)." --"U.S. real estate deflation is now the world's real estate deflation" --"The last time the U.S. experienced a deflationary depression, residential rents fell for 18 consecutive years. Expect the same or worse this time around."-- that ones for the BTLters :-) http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6595.html And remember as you read, this guy is a property guy. . .less by CJ Says on November 04 2008, 11:14 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

new jobs in a new area....well where do you go? Cannot live on the street. Huuh? Where did you fall out of the tree. South Africa is busy turning into a big squatter camp! The house pie is shrinking, as with all the rest. Off course people cannot live on the streets, thats why they are emigrating. There is still a core of . .more activity, partial old wealth feeding the market, partial noveau riche (or shall we say plunder riche). Children are youre greatest investment, even bigger than a house or car, and they will push off slowly but surely. Where th F** will people get money from to finance these massive house prices if not in a locked in market? I talk about mr. Joe the Plumber, not about the 0,5% of the population which earns above 300K p.a. . .less by Joker on November 04 2008, 11:34 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

WHERE IS YOUR FACTS CJ? If you say that the sky is going to fall, then pleae base it on economic facts and not on hear-say from people. Aslo doesn't help to compare our market to the US and UK. We have different circumstances, politics, economic policies and acts like the NCA. . .more Also we are a developing country and the US and UK not. I have a feeling that you have let go of some good investments at ridicilouse prices or missed some good opportunities! . .less by NOT RUNNING WITH BULLS!!! on November 04 2008, 11:40 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

JOKER NOT TO CHANGE HIS NAME!! Hhahahahaha! This is where you are wrong!! Joe Plumber does not need R300k p.a. to afford a R1 mil house. The wrongest thing that the banks did was to provide 100% bonds. Let Joe Plumber accumulate a good deposit, get rid of the BMW and stop . .more shopping in Sandton for a while. You base your opinion on people obtaining 100% bonds..... If you really want something, you will work for it to afford it....Maybe this whole crisis will give potential home owners a new perspective. And then there is 60 year old Mr Electrician who has accumulated wealth or inherited will have a reasonable deposit. And have you heard of the black middle class? . .less by NOT RUNNING WITH BULLS!!! on November 04 2008, 11:53 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Agree with "not running with Bulls" he has no facts, 1st he slated ABSA index and clearly told me Standard bank index was "the one". Now he is slating Standards index. Cj, you stating the Standard index is not reflecting whats on the ground? How on earth would you know whats . .more happening on the ground.....!!!??? You dot own, you are not a agent you are not in the business... UNLESS... perhaps is your little business a garden service? Do you cut the ground for the middle class of Cape Town? "If you can afford to rent you can afford to buy there" what utter cr@p. Who ever told you that? That is just a stupid comment. Sorry but is there anyone else who believes this? . .less by Brennan on November 04 2008, 12:00 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

As in Batman, no jokes at all. You base your opinion on people obtaining 100% bonds..... Non. I base my opinion on the big South African political picture, not the intermediate spikes here and there. 'Black middle class' is a liberal white illusion that was sold as the . .more non-plus-ultra dirung the 1980's of solving South Africa's problems. The least Joe the Plumbers work in Sandton and drive BMW's. Sandton is a suburb, and the least representative of South Africa. Browse Stats S.A. for a graph of income levels in S.A. . .less by Joker on November 04 2008, 12:52 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

indices are backward looking All those who are slating ABSA, Standard etc house price indices, remember that these indices are based on actual sales concluded. Therefore, they are backwards-looking and in a bear market will be a lagging indicator. The major discrepancy you see now . .more between asking prices and offer prices will only flow through into these indices in the next couple of months. Also the comment on increase in show house attendance reflects the increase in bargain hunters which soon become disinterested again when they realize the sellers are in denial and are not prepared to accept low offers, and in the extreme estate agents are not prepared to take much lower than asking offers to "protect" the market, however this is just going to make the fall to the bottom more severe when sellers finally have to let go. . .less by ljh on November 04 2008, 12:57 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

ONLY FACTS ON OPINIONS JOKER.... Can I say "poephol" on this site? I don't think idiot is the right word for Joker. The reference to the suburb of "Sandton" was an example only! What I am trying to say is that South Africans in general live above their means. You need to prioritize, and . .more substitute luxury with basic needs. Housing to me is a basic need. Its not about your income, but the fact that you need to move away from 100% financing cars and houses. Sorry, I don't understand your argument on the Black middle class that is a "white illusion"? As long as BEE exists your black middle class will become wealthier. If you want to fight my opinion than comment on all my points in "WHEN WILL IT STOP FALLING". I recon my points are valid, and if your opinion differs on where the market is heading, then address each of my points with your factual opinion. . .less by NOT RUNNING WITH BULLS!! on November 04 2008, 13:04 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Selling your house Speak to your bank manager, home loan manager if not helpful keep records of the conversation and then contact the NCR, obtain a local debt councillor contact number and make an appointment. The cost of this initial appointment should not exceed R . .more 50. Hopefully you would be sorted out . .less by ea on November 04 2008, 13:15 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

...By the way, the market is not completely dead... Last month I purchased a property, and now trying to sell my primary residence. We have had a consistant flow of potencial buyers (both home buyers and investors). Just a show that there is still a little bit of demand, as long as you are not ridicilouse . .more with your price. . .less by NOT RUNNING WITH BULLS!! on November 04 2008, 15:19 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

So Brennan believes houses have only fallen 5 percent this year That's one of the reasons I think you are not very bright. by CJ Says on November 04 2008, 15:23 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

For NRWB I am the only contributor on here who repeatedly uses facts, stats, charts etc... I don't think any bull has ever backed up his ideas with anything more than " I bought a house a few years back and it doubled in price so everyone rush out now . .more and buy a house". Go to search and look at my previous posts and you will find facts galore. . .less by CJ Says on November 04 2008, 15:26 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Points Your are correct in the short term. I look long term - I am interested in a future for me and my children - I don't like what I see. For 100% loans - there never was a savings culture in S.A. and I cannot see there ever will. Besides, few are in a . .more position to save salarywise. Black diamonds - the impression is given they earn a potent monthly salary - I have seen income tables - it is still very modest. There was a study whites still earn the most due to their education level. Those with luxury have their houses. The rest lunger around, and their masses are expanding. BEE is diluting wealth amongst more people - it will not last forever for normal economic rules will kick in - what you don't sow you cannot reap. Theft however will ruin S.A. on the long run. Housing is a basic need, the difference is the price tag. "Huis, Paleis, Pondok, Varkhok". . .less by Joker on November 04 2008, 15:30 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Stats is great if it is relevant to SA! CJ, If you cannot compare apples with pears! If youshow facts relevant to South Africa and not the UK or USA, I will take you more seriously! Also you don't form your own opinion, but rely on overseas statistics! by NOT RUNNING WITH BULLS!! on November 04 2008, 15:33 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

It's simple NRWB SA doesn't have such readily available stats and analysis. The mess with a simple thing like a housing index reveals the problems. What happens globally happens here so using US and UK stats is fine because there is a strong correlation with us over the . .more years. If you have some local stuff to reveal, lets see it. . .less by CJ Says on November 04 2008, 16:19 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

@ CJ, does silence mean consent? So you do run a garden service? I can picture you sitting in your bakkie with your blueberrry reading and typing whilst your staff are cutting grass.. Explains why you like it typed and spaced so that you can read it clearly in the mid day sun . .more with your crossword dictionary in hand. My point is not about if its 5% or whatever it is, just that you have no clue or facts, yet you make these wild statements. Just like the headline on this post "house prices still falling" Sure they are down by R20k but really.. hardly a problem is it? Designed to grab attention just like you CJ, just like you.. PS- Whats the ratio of 2 stoke oil to unleaded petrol ? . .less by Brennan on November 04 2008, 16:26 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

No, silence means your posts bore me For someone who has never posted one piece of statistical analysis on realestateweb backing up your ideas, saying I have "no facts" is a bit rich. I repeat to you once again - please listen this time because having to tell you things over and . .more over again is soooooo boring for all of us .... the Standard was 13% down from peak when prices from those on the ground were about 15% so I liked to think the index was doing an OK job. Now it is telling us the market has perked up and is only down 5% y on y, I know that's not true, you deep down know that's not true, so why are we even having this conversation. The Standard index looked like it had some credibility - now it has blown it - end of story - move on - don't mention it again. So I prefer to use more credible foreign stats and then see what correlation there has been historically with SA between theirs and ours, and make forward predictions based on that. . .less by CJ Says on November 04 2008, 17:12 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

No CJ it just does not work for you Plain and simple, the stats dont support what you want to be happening. Just remember Standard is basing their stats on what business they have written. They have no reason to fudge it. They are interested in the demand for their product, . .more (loans) thats why they do the stats. Thats why its house price growth, vs Time. Well I dont need to plot graphs for anyone, I know whats happening in my markets which range from low end to about 1.5 Mill. As well as other investors throughout SA. Its called 1st hand info CJ . .less by Brennan on November 04 2008, 17:42 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Stats The stats are usually in the articles. You can read them. In past many varied bullish comments you will find many hyperlinks to Standard Bank, ABSA, FNB and Lightstone statistics. They are quoted because their methodology is known and hence their . .more advantages and shortcomings. The CJ Stats are cherry picked isolated outliers using specific timeline intervals that are picked to represent a mental model and not depict statistical trends. You need to be careful what you pick to measure. This bull has no problem with a known statistical model showing a small minus y/y on return and another model showing a small positive y/y return. That's a fact. Property Bears presenting statistical apocrypha I have a problem with. That's a fact. I think.... is a projection, an assumption. A non-fact. Bears think a lot but seem to lack the ability to reason rationally. . .less by Bull on November 04 2008, 18:13 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

SA Auction stats - raw, but real Parklands 3 bedroom/2.5 bathroom townhouse(only 12 months old) - sheriff auction price R583000 - Sold in 2007 for R879 000 by developer 2 bedroom/ 1 bathroom apartment - sheriff auction price: R424 000 - open market value: R650 000 2 . .more bedoom/ 2 .5 bathroom 127 square meter luxury apartment on Blouberg beachfront - Outstanding bond: R1.9 million (registered in 2005)- sold by sheriff for R1.450 million Blauwberg 3 bedoom/ 2 bathroom/double garage/pool - recently renovated house in pristine condition, separate 1 bedroom granny flat on 900 sq/m plot - Sheriif auction price R866 000 - Outstanding bond: R1.5 million - open market value- R1.3 million Sybrand Park 4 bedroom/3 bathroom 250 sq meter house on 850 square meter plot with pool, garage for 4 cars, offstreet parking for 6 cars / granny flat - sheriff auction price: R790 000 - outstanding bond value: R1.6 million (registered in 2004) - Open market price: R1.5 million odd Ag ja - the market is rosy guys! . .less by Frank on November 04 2008, 19:53 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

more stats, a little less raw Data from RE/MAX Atlantic Seaboard agent Steven Delit show a similar drop in sales of standalone homes. Delit says the number of houses sold on the Atlantic Seaboard declined by 37% from January to September 2008 (y-o-y). His research shows that the . .more average price paid for a house on the Atlantic Seaboard in September this year was already down 17% on September 2008. see http://www.property24.com/property24/news/FullArticle.aspx?ArticleId=8629 rosy as hell.. . .less by Frank on November 04 2008, 19:57 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Destressed sales Yes thats true, destressed sales, even during the boom times you would find such deals. Its just now people look more closely at them. However they have increased but this would not be seen as the average house price. Joe average would not be . .more buying you need to have a deposit paid in cash (non refundable) and other terms which those that dont operate in this world wont be comfortable to buy at such events. Go check it out if you have never bought at a sale and exec auction on the steps of the courthouse you will feel like a small fish in a big bond. . .less by Brennan on November 04 2008, 20:31 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Small fish - on the Atlantic sea board too? Ya I dunno Brennan.. sounds like "special pleading" - what about the Atlantic sea board - regular sales down 50%? prices down 17%. The future is rapidly approaching it seems, and it's not what it used to be.. by Frank on November 04 2008, 21:03 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

@ frank No expert on Seaboard but makes sense to me,this market has high amount of foreign buyers. With global crunch these buyers would be holding back especially out of emerging markets. They will be back.. just remember sales are down not prices. by Brennan on November 04 2008, 21:13 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Stats Those are not auction statistical trends, they are selected individual selling prices compared to bank valuations or bonds. Is there an auction index that trends auction property prices? Brennan highlighted the distressed sales argument. The . .more number of dwarfs thrown this weekend declined by 37%. Experts cannot agree if there is a shortage of suitable dwarfs willing to be put on the market for low prices or if there is a shortage of buyers willing to buy dwarfs at high prices. Dwarf salesmen are distressed and urge sellers to drop prices and buyers to raise prices so sales volumes and commissions can be maintained. A widespread media blitz using out of context figures and inappropriate indicators is intended to get buyers and sellers to compromise restoring sales commissions to their previous high levels. . .less by Bull on November 04 2008, 21:16 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Let's examine some recent evidence Everyone who has bought on this forum in recent months has boasted of 20 to 35% off last year prices. In auctions they are up to 50% down. Frank adds a few more examples above. Rawson says CT is 20% down. My friend sold recently at 20% down. Lew said 15% . .more down 6 months back. 100,000 are behind with bond payments. Banks have lost billions in property debts. Sellers have doubled. Buyers have halved. Yet Standard say prices are only down 5% ... and Brennan and Bull believe them. Well I don't. Nor do I suspect do most people who are involved at ground level with property and don't have a vested interest in keeping the property party alive. I don't claim to know the exact reason, but their statistical model is flawed in the present conditions. Maybe it is the low volumes. Maybe its the crash situation. What I do know for certain is that the 5% figure is way out of whack. What I also know is if property falls as much as I believe it will, then the SA banks will incur big losses. Is there a hidden hand at work behind these dodgy stats? Again, I don't know. This is SA. Anything can happen. Noseweek is usually full of exposes on SA banks' and their unorthodox shenanigans. It's actually a big problem because we don't have a reliable way to track SA domestic property at the moment. . .less by CJ Says on November 04 2008, 23:54 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

@CJ - just talk to people on the ground Standard Banks index's number comes from the loans they ave given out. So its understandable that,a ccording to them, prices are down only 3.6 %. As a property flipper (even in this bad market) I am finding that prices are way down. I am . .more selling properties in Cape Town 20-30% less than what the owner paid for it a year or two/three years ago and still struggle to find buyers. I must admit this is partly due to the banks strict lending criteria. However, the fact of the matte remains that prices have softened and the gap between asking price and actual selling price is sitting at over 10% and climbing steadily. Not a single property out there is being sold full price. One thing that I have picked up is that the majority of sellers are people who bought in the last 3 years. These people bought at a high price when rates were low and now are squeezed. People who bought pre-2004 are not to phased and are making their payments as they bought at a low price. I believe once these post-2004 buyers are squeezed out the market, prices will stabilise. BUT the problem is that , according to the banks, there are over 100 000 homeowners in serious arrears. This mass dumping will drop prices further...alot further. . .less by WTF on November 05 2008, 05:04 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Ever dealt with a Bank? Even the slightest administrative error on their part can put a bond account in arrears. by Bull on November 05 2008, 05:58 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

CJ Sounds like Barack OBama "Yes I can", "I beleive"....... .......THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT BARACK EARNED RESPECT. Your argument is without any facts or logical reasoning other than his boring hand picked US and UK stats!! Look at the stock market and the stats...Where did these positive stats and graphs leave . .more us in recent months? You are blind, if you follow statistics, as they are based on past figures. The world, and the way it is run is changing! The trick is to predict the future and not base your opinion on stats produced by actuaries that has no market or business knowledge. How can you say that you stats are closely correlated to South Africa? Our circumstances are not nearly the same! Have you been to the United States in recent months to see what is happening first hand? I dont think so. They have a huge debt problem. Bonds and credit was given without any proof of income. Foreclosures was already a major problem in February when we were in the US. I think SA survived this storm with minor casualties. What is 100,000 houses in default to the total population? Not much! Like Brennan says, I think that you are sitting in your 3 liter Ford, downloading meaningless stats, and praying for the sky to fall so you to can afford property! . .less by NOT RUNNING WITH BULLS!! on November 05 2008, 08:07 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

let me repeat Standard are talking about house price growth. Let me repeat..... house price growth, house price growth, house price growth, house price growth, house price growth, house price growth, house price growth, house price growth, house price growth, . .more . .more house price growth, house price growth, house price growth. Got it yet? . .less by smug on November 05 2008, 08:46 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

@ WTF Dont you want to contact me, I have some interest in CT property and would be keen to know what you have to flip. ibuyhouses@thenet.co.za by Brennan on November 05 2008, 09:32 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

To CJ if you are interested in the sales price of houses in your area go and visit the offices of RPPR (residential property price ranger). U can, for a small fee, get a printout of all the houses/ flats sold in in your area during the past few years. Estate . .more agents have access to the RPPR online....I found the lists very interesting. . .less by Mischa on November 05 2008, 11:26 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Mischa - What we need in SA are websites like these - Mouseprice.com Estimates the value on any UK property based on sales of similar properties in the area - alsd shows average salary earned in the area, has maps showing schools, buses etc ... and a whole lot more - very . .more impressive. Propertysnake.co.uk Tracks the reductions in UK property asking prices - I see the top ten have undergone between 45 and 53% price reductions. 260,000 properties on the database. Flippersintrouble.blogspot.com Tracking asking price drops of individual houses in Sacremento, USA - 1070 houses at present - most at least 40% down and still no buyers. I see 3 are 60% down and have been on sale for about 1000 days. . .less by CJ Says on November 05 2008, 20:16 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

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