Property enters "millionaire-makers'" phase
Realestateweb guest columnist Brennan Carey, a professional property investor, shares his thoughts on the current market.
South Africa in the current political and economic climate has many challenges - of that there is no doubt. Those who choose to stay face many challenges, no matter what their race. They need to look at both the short-term issues and the long-term opportunities to see whether this country holds a future for them and their families. Many are leaving; many will stay; many will also come back. The decision to stay is based on gut feeling for many. If you are preparing to stay it's up to you to make it work. You can't sit back waiting for the government to do it for you.
As a white South African in my mid 30s, and current full-time property investor, I grew up in a time when black people were not allowed to attend the same school as me or live in the same neighbourhoods. My parents and I lived a life of privilege.
Free education, free health care and sheltered employment. Unfortunately we are now realising the cost of all that was free, and it is clear those luxuries were in fact quite expensive. I grew up to fear all that was black. The year 1994 was seen as the end of the world and freedom for all white South Africans.
My working career was one where affirmative action resulted in me not being first choice for jobs, yet determination saw me through. In the late 90s I started to educate myself about property and today I own a decent amount of investment property and don't have to work for an income. Although I am not where I need to be yet, my path is clear and defined and I continue to grow.
I raise these issues because as a South African property investor I see the future of this country as bright. There is potential for black and white South Africans to succeed in this country of ours. All the negativity in SA takes its toll on many, I agree. But, as a property investor, I have taken the long-term view that I have a lot to offer the country of my birth and in turn SA has a lot of opportunities for me. I choose to be the best South African I can be.
Property as any asset class will face its ups and downs. Currently we are in one of those phases where sentiment is down, interest rates are up, inflation is high and affordability is down. Estate agents are going out of business and by the time the market has stabilised many will have been culled. The same holds true for property investors who bought when the supply of property exceeded the demand and yet they still chose to pay a premium with the "belief" that you can never lose in property. Unfortunately this is not true. As with any investment, sound buying principles need to be followed.
In addition, property economists working for banks are viewing the asset class as risky because we are at a stage of the market where yearly capital appreciation of the asset class is not seeing positive growth - affecting the security against bank loans. Most banks are not issuing 100% loan-to-value bonds because they fear the risk of negative equity. These economists are employed by the banks to protect the risks of the banks so in times of negative growth they need to protect their business which is lending money.
Banks are not interested in rental yields or investor cashflow. Their sole concern is protecting their risk and mortgages, so they don't understand the fundamentals of buying property or the drivers for investors.
Homeowners, many of whom got into the property market during the boom, will go into foreclosure as the rate of insolvencies continues to rise. These buyers were sold an investment dream by estate agents who convinced them that property was the perfect investment that you got to live in and enjoy.
Most did not realise that the home you occupy is a liability until the day its paid and only then does it become an asset. They bought from sales' people who know how to sell and have no understanding of property as an investment class.
Many of these buyers will have no option but to sit it out as property eventually beats inflation. As long as they can pay their monthly instalments or work a plan with their banks they will survive.
These situations and market conditions do, however, create fantastic buying opportunities for buyers who have cash or can qualify for finance and these times are commonly known as the "millionaire-makers' phase" by property investors. These investors are taking advantage of the conditions to phase in their asset purchases.
Admittedly for most investors the current market does not have the same "boom time" appeal of the growth and expansion years we saw in SA earlier this decade, but there is money to be made for those that can buy now and hold out.
Brennan Carey is a full time SA property investor and is currently looking to buy below market value properties (Ibuyhouses@thenet.co.za).
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Do you agree the South African residential market has entered a "millionaire-makers' phase"? Tell us below, or vote in the Wednesday Property Poll.
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Comments
How did you buy them? With deposits? At auctions? With the bank's money? With an inheritance?
by Interested on August 13 2008, 13:19
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CJ clearly has no idea what he is talking about.
by Panic Atttack on August 13 2008, 13:39
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But you have to laugh, I suppose. By the way, anyone lost money on property in the last 8 years or so?
by Darwon on August 13 2008, 14:11
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zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
by GungetsTuft on August 13 2008, 14:27
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... tell them you are a self made man!!!!!
by Panic Atttack on August 13 2008, 14:38
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why buy now, risk further capital depreciation and not cover your borrowing costs. Surely rather consider an asset class where there is the chance of appreciation at this point in time. Try have a broader perspective of wealth creation/preservation and . .more
by frontline on August 13 2008, 15:04
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Is this Brennan the property bull who usually posts here?
by junkyard on August 13 2008, 15:23
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"Banks are not interested in rental yiels"!!! Brennan, have ever applied for development finance? There is money to be made in property, but giving advice on it is best left to the real seasoned proffessionals. Reading a book on property investment and . .more
by Yoda on August 13 2008, 15:25
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What Brennan knows (and what I and many "alternative" real estate investors know) and is not telling: The real way to make money in real estate in any ecomic climate is to buy below MV to the extent that your cash flow is from the start. Fix your bond . .more
by Property investor on August 13 2008, 15:32
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Typical SA mentality: can't keep up with the Jones' (whatever they are, property investors, bigger home owner, bigger boat owner etc) leads most SA's to toss their C*** critique around with little knowledge of who it is they're criticising. My BMW is . .more
by Lionel on August 13 2008, 15:36
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You have a bigger set of balls than me Brennan Carey, I prefer to hide behind a stupid nom de plume. Congratulations on a well written article and good luck with your investments.
Diversification in other asset classes may prove a suitable . .more
by Tuscanite on August 13 2008, 15:42
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And good luck with your future investments!
by Brenton on August 13 2008, 16:20
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The only one making real money is the man who thinks through the plan, and sells it to others for a hefty course price..
People generally lack courage to do what they mostly know they should, or they lack will and motivation. Don't need . .more
by JW on August 13 2008, 16:49
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Well Brennan.....if your property portfolio is underperforming then *write an article for Moneyweb*. There you go boyo!
Seriously, I think you must be a very clever guy, you seem to have a good grasp of the present property market in South Africa. . .more
by Builder/Buyer/Renovator for 30 years on August 13 2008, 17:20
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Quite a bearish article until he spoilt it all with the "millionaire-makers" jargon at the end.
I am not sure that one year into a 5 or 6 year property crash is the time for millionaire wannabes to go bargain hunting. However "millionaire makers . .more
by CJ says on August 13 2008, 18:11
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Ok, well done for retiring early and making good investment decision while you were/are young.
By the way how many is "a decent amount", what is the portfolio value.
Judging by the focus on banks and their lending criteria i assume you are . .more
by Mthoko on August 13 2008, 18:49
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I must say to write a article here on this site takes some think skin as I have learnt you guys can be quite ruthless. I took the plunge as I wanted to get my viewpoint across.
Yes it may not be perfect, but its what works for me, I am always . .more
by Brennan on August 13 2008, 18:57
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I went to repo auction in Muizenberg the Southern Peninsula in Cape Town today. The property on auction was a three bedroom, two bathroom semi detached house that on the market for R750K by Seeff. The sheriff said the outstanding bond was in excess of . .more
by WTF on August 13 2008, 19:47
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Good article, well reasoned, very upbeat. Unfortunately, you miss one glaring, 600lb-gorilla-in-the-living room fact, that is never going to change: There is a black african government in South Africa. This type of government is never stable, (not in the . .more
by CA Bez on August 13 2008, 20:40
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And after some good intellectual banter and a good deal done by WTF, along comes racist CA Bez and stuffs it all up for all of us.
You are the filth of our society and the quicker you all go the better. If you're still here obviously no country . .more
by Wayne on August 13 2008, 21:10
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That'll leave the property speculators and the retirees, who'll be stuck here for the same reason - they didn't cash in soon enough. My (utterly racist) view of residential property anywhere in Africa is that it's inherently not worth the dust it's built . .more
by Darwon on August 13 2008, 22:48
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A 40% fall - not bad WTF - a record on this forum - the previous two were 35% - the crash is happening faster than I expected. Of course you have to be careful thinking you got a bargain ... this could be the new market price.
On a 100% bond I . .more
by CJ Says on August 14 2008, 01:08
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Here's an interesting snippet in a recent Moneyweek editorial. In the month of June in 1000 of the country's 2851 post codes, there were NO HOUSE SALES. Nothing sold in 40% of the postcodes. OUCH !
This year looks like the UK will have the . .more
by CJ Says on August 14 2008, 01:23
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Well, I paid cash for it so no bond. There is a 30K renovation going to be done by yours truly (with a little help from some Zimbabweans) that will make the place look decent again. Currently, the tenant is paying R3K per month and the place is a dump . .more
by WTF on August 14 2008, 05:39
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The repo auction and the fact that is was the third one in the area on that day shows that there is a aura of panic in the market. Local banks have been hit hard by the downturn and we have our own sort of subprime crisis in the making.
Come . .more
by WTF on August 14 2008, 06:07
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Something is very clear for me here. Those with negative comments have never truly invested in property. If you thought you could sign your way to millions, think again.
Opportunities are definitely out there, and I couldn't agree more with . .more
by Dom on August 14 2008, 07:30
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Why is there such negativity from people who have never invested in property?
by Thanks on August 14 2008, 08:34
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And nice to put a face to a name.
Would be interesting to see some of the other mugs of people who post here.
by Jimmy the dogsboddy on August 14 2008, 08:55
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Bren, well done. Funny how people who have never invested in property are always vocal and critical of those who have made it.
by Fellow PIN Member on August 14 2008, 09:02
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Careful of highly geared properties - Interest rates will soar to 30% soon when Zuma and his cronies get into power and do away with prudent financial management - They are following Mugabes policies - high inflation, hight interest rates, weak currency - . .more
by Happy Gilmore on August 14 2008, 09:31
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Time to start shopping around. I'll consider myself a buyer in 2009/2010.
Maybe I'll pick up a couple of bargains like this one: :-D
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080813/METRO/808130360
by Freemarketman on August 14 2008, 09:52
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Mate,
No doubt about it. Brennan has changed his bullish attitude so much that he even agrees that it's not true "that you can never lose in property". Much more of this and he will officially be a bear.
by Renter on August 14 2008, 09:54
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To me it sounds like there are numerous bargains around (as per WTF), so why would one choose to rent? I think renting really sucks and for the 3 years I rented I always felt so depressed. I was angry about house prices, negative about the ecomomy even . .more
by Chris on August 14 2008, 10:46
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It sounds like you are a top student who learnt from the teachings given in the Rich Dad, Poor Dad series of books. To all millionaire wannabees, better you read the second book of the series, "The Cash-flow Quadrant". lt changed my financial life for . .more
by roy nattrass on August 14 2008, 10:51
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Can you please answer some of the questions above. Thanks
by curious cat on August 14 2008, 12:00
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Ok, I focus 100% on buying below market value property. During the boom years when people where telling me there where no bargains to be had I was looking for them and getting them. Make money when you buy not when you sell.. During the current market . .more
by Brennan on August 14 2008, 12:27
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Detroit house for $1 - the new owner "paid cash" LOL !!!
It used to be the best property on the street ... then it all went wrong ...
"So desperate was the bank owner of 8111 Traverse Street to unload the property that it agreed to pay . .more
by CJ Says on August 14 2008, 12:54
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You say you rent a R3.3 million house for R11000 per month. So you are saving R25000 per month becasue you are not paying a bond....your landlord is.
So you are implying that you could afford a R36000 odd bond payment? That means you should be . .more
by WTF on August 14 2008, 12:58
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Reminds me of that You tube video of a Miami auction I posted a while back where a house in a complex had just gone for half the price last years buyers paid.
"But, but, but the developers promised never to sell for less than market value" wailed . .more
by CJ Says on August 14 2008, 13:02
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CJ, you are worrying me, are you also starting to change your ways? Surely if the buyer waited a few more years he could have picked it up for 20c not a full $1.. ? :) Only kidding, at the end of the day a good deal is a good deal.
It also begs . .more
by Brennan on August 14 2008, 13:28
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At long last a proper constructive string of discussion without somebody talking up his book. Everything is cyclical except perhaps Politics in SA. Quality properties will always appreciate...by how much will depend of inflation and the nuances of his . .more
by and Zen on August 14 2008, 13:33
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CJ when can we expect your article?
Brennan, I hate the spell police myself, but you look like the kind of guy that does not mind the crit - was/were does not = where.
by Donkie on August 14 2008, 14:17
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Ever been to Detroit? Story doesn't suprise me at all. Unemployment rate over 60%, crime ridden etc etc.
I think he over payed - wasted a good $
by Uncle Samson on August 14 2008, 15:15
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The really funny part is the Detroit property was on the market for a dollar and it still took 18 days before a buyer could be found to purchase it ...
Donkie, I must say this young whippersnapper Brennan is forcing my hand ... suddenly being in . .more
by CJ Says on August 14 2008, 22:38
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1/ Having a fun job involving adventure and travel but not making a fortune
2/ Settling down and starting a business to make some money
3/ Committed relationship and the patter of tiny feet
4/ Got responsibilities, money in the . .more
by CJ Says on August 14 2008, 23:14
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1/ Getting into trouble and on run from the police.
2/ staying at home and getting a job after much moaning from parents.
3/ girlfriend got in family way, had to get married or face father-in-law.
4/ FNB created Mzansi . .more
by Translator on August 15 2008, 10:11
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Tuscanite ?
by CJ Says on August 15 2008, 12:05
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Your woman must have the patience of a saint mate. I am not suprised she banned you from rambling on at dinner parties. It's never pleasant getting cornered by a bore - but here we sit with you on MW. No, I jest - we enjoy having you on board. You are . .more
by Jimmy the dogsboddy on August 15 2008, 19:32
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cj please dont go, who else would i be able to explain FACTS rather than charts to.brennan well done, it took me 25 years to get "comfortable" im glad you could do it sooner
by andrewa on August 16 2008, 02:52
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My woman did have her moments of doubt in the past but now that everything I predicted has so far come true, I've become a bit of a hero ... she certainly appreciates us being debt free in these times of financial turbulence.
by CJ Says on August 16 2008, 10:54
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Very good CJ
by Small Boy on August 18 2008, 08:50
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Nice to see an old Campbell boy making it out there in the big bad SA, I enjoyed your article, I have always been interested in property but just didn't know how to raise the capital. Anyways keep it up and all the best.
by Superman returns on August 20 2008, 14:53
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Hey all you clever people you,
A quick translation, into English, of the following:
´If there's a tenant in a building, said building sells on yield, generally at 9% plus returns`
What does that mean?
Question:
Is it . .more
by Superdawie on September 07 2008, 01:25
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This article raises some interesting points in terms of investing at a young age and investing at a time when you can take your pick of Below Market Value properties.
The problems start with the credit act and capital though - many young buyers/ . .more
by The Property Magazine on January 26 2009, 17:05
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http://webuy-houses.co.za
by http://webuy-houses.co.za on December 01 2009, 15:54
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